Millennium Marketing Research®

Tom Schori DBA Millennium Marketing Research®, 808 Ironwood, Normal IL 61761, 309-532-8466

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The 'next year in Jerusalem' syndrome in American business.

By Thomas R. Schori, Ph.D., and Michael L. Garee, Principals,  Millennium Marketing Research, 808 E. Ironwood, Normal, IL 61761-5239. 

In Leon Uris’s book, Exodus, the Jews, each year for nearly 2000 years, proclaimed, "Next year in Jerusalem!" with the reverent hope that the very next year Jerusalem and the "Promised Land" would once again be theirs¾a hope that was finally realized in 1967. Obviously, it was rather optimistic of the Jews to each year expect that their dream would be realized by the very next year.

While the Jews were able to persevere some 2000 years to realize their dream, businesses clearly don’t have the luxury of waiting 2000 years to realize theirs. Nonetheless, some businesses continue to act as though they do!

Consider this scenario which, in our experience, happens all too frequently in business:

• A business’s sales are steadily declining.
• A company officer determines that the solution is to improve the training of the sales force.
• After two years of research and development, a new sales training program is launched and proclaimed the "cure-all," with a cautionary note that it still will take three years before a positive impact is felt.
• Three years later, sales are still steadily declining.
• Another company officer determines that the "real" solution is to provide the sales force with better computer support because improved sales training clearly wasn’t the answer to improving sales.
• After another five years of research and development, a new computer support system (which is by no means "state of the art" by the time it’s finally ready) is launched and, again, dutifully proclaimed to be the "cure-all." Just as dutifully, the cautionary note is (again!) sounded that it will take three years before any positive impact is felt.
• Three years later, sales are still steadily declining.
• Yet another company officer determines that the real solution is better sales management, not a better computer support system.
• After three more years of research and development, a new sales management system is implemented, which, it is proclaimed, will seriously boost sales this time! However, just to be on the safe side, the now familiar proviso is once again sounded that it will take three years before any positive impact is felt.
• Three years later, sales are still steadily declining.
• And yet another company officer determines that, after all, it seems that a dearth of new products is the culprit, not the sales management system as earlier thought.
• After two years of research and development, new products, which, not unexpectedly, are proclaimed to be the "cure-all," are introduced, but with the caution that it will take three years before any positive impact is realized.
• And, of course, three years later sales are still declining!

Well, you get the idea. Sort of sounds like the "5-year plans" that the Soviets used to put in operation every five years, doesn’t it? Another five years went by, and they still were no farther ahead than when they started. It also sounds a little bit like Montgomery Wards. Or Sears (before they finally got their act together recently). Or The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company. Or Apple Computer. Or, heaven forbid, your company!

We refer to this type of business behavior as the "Next year in Jerusalem" syndrome, for obvious reasons. In a way, it would be humorous if it weren’t for the fact that it can¾ and often does¾ prove deadly for heretofore very successful American businesses. Not only is it unnecessarily wasteful of skills, talents and energy, it’s equally wasteful of a finite resource: time.

The minute we think we have finally discovered the "silver bullet," we usually stop looking for other, more reliable answers to problems. As a result, a tremendous amount of time is wasted. Consider, for example, in the scenario that we’ve outlined in this column, the total elapsed time is 24 years. Not 2000 years, but 24 years! That’s the bulk of a business career for most of us.

At the core of the "Next year in Jerusalem" syndrome is the belief (read: delusion) that somewhere "out there" is indeed a "silver bullet" that is the answer to virtually all of the organization’s woes. Because the organization believes that it now has the solution, it simply implements that one "silver bullet." Then, when it doesn’t prove to be the answer, it implements another, then another. . .and another. . .all in sequence.

Does this mean that there is no such thing as a single "silver bullet"? Sometimes, if we’re really, really lucky, we may stumble upon one, but it’s been our experience that this rarely is the case, and for a company to rely upon finding one is to invite ultimate disaster. A far better approach is for a company to surface well-thought-out marketing strategies and tactics that contain what may prove to be many "silver bullets." That way, when some miss the "target" (as they certainly are wont to do!) still others will at least have a chance of hitting "bull’s eyes"!

Or, at the risk of boring you with one more analogy, consider the latest unmanned Mars mission. How utterly foolish would it have been for NASA to rely solely upon one onboard computer system to steer the craft to that distant planet, land it and then conduct explorations of the terrain? Indeed, there were several redundant onboard computer systems, not because the primary one might have failed or turned in a less-than-perfect performance but when it did! Clearly, it’s not "rocket science" to realize that such an approach is equally valid in the world of business.