I’ m not one of those guys who watches what happens or, worse yet, one of those who wonder what happened. Instead I’m one of those rare people that make things happen. We don’t have to look very far to see that what’s true with people is also true with organizations.
When JFK became President, he brought in McNamara–known as a whiz-kid-from Ford Motors as his Secretary of Defense. It was McNamara who established the military strategies for the conduct of the war in Vietnam with the help of other whiz-kids (MBAs) he had brought with him from Ford. Talk about irony. Now Obama has brought in his whiz-kids to rejuvenate General Motors and Chrysler Motors. McNamara and his whiz-kids had no experience running wars and they failed in Vietnam. Neither Obama nor his whiz-kids have had experience running automobile companies. Why should we expect any more success than we saw with McNamara and his whiz-kids in Vietnam.
As for this simple psychologist and marketer, I have have no experience either in overseeing the conduct of a war or in operating an auto producer. But I do have a proven record of successfully helping marketers use their talents and experiences to make things happen. What I do is really quite simple. I help marketing organizations achieve significant profitable growth–even in the current economic environment.
To have the audacity to claim that I can help organizations achieve significant profitable growth during this downturn in the economy may make it seem to some that this psychologist is certifiably crazy. But if you think that this psychologist just might a sly fox who can achieve exactly what he claims, challenge me!
Have we gotten to the stage of moral corruption in this nation of ours when evil is seen as good? To this simple man of the soil, it certainly looks that way with some of the cabinet appointments made by the current administration.
It certainly appears that appointing Timothy Geithner to be our Secretary of the Treasurer isn’t a lot different than putting the fox in charge of the chicken house. He knowingly failed to pay taxes for several years in a row while working for IMF.
In 1993, about 125 days into Bill Clinton’s presidency, my colleague, Bob Gaecke, gave me a bumper sticker bearing the words “Is it 1996 yet?” It didn’t dawn on me what it meant until he told me. In retrospect I must say that that question was posed prematurely.
Now about 125 days into Barack Obama’s presidency, the question “Is it 2012 yet?” isn’t premature in the least. During President Obama’s brief presidency, we’ve seen many questionable decisions. To me, one particularly grievous decision was appointing Timothy Geithner secretary of the Treasury. That nomination and its acceptance reflect badly on the character of both men–Geithner and the President. Knowing what he had done, Geithner should never have accepted the nomination and the President should have immediately revoked the nomination once he learned that Geithner had avoided paying his duly owed federal income tax. Now every time I see Secretary Geithner in the news, I cringe.
There is no denying the fact that I like to work. But absolutely nothing (with one exception) is more fun than spending time with family. That’s Ginni, Hannah, and me just hanging out at the home of our son, Neil, and daughter-in-law, Brandi.
I met Ginni, the girl of my dreams, in Richmond, Virginia in the ’70s. I talked this Belle of the South into marrying this big dumb Yankee. Shortly before our one child, Neil, was born, we moved to Dayton, OH. I wish that we’d have been able to have a dozen kids but Ginni always said that “The good Lord gave her exactly as many kids as she could handle.”
Some years later, Ginni was a good sport in moving with me to Louisville KY, then Bloomington-Normal IL, then Minneapolis-St Paul, and finally back to Bloomington-Normal IL. Shortly after 9/11, Neil married Brandi, the girl of his dreams. About three years later, they had Hannah who is between Ginni and me in the picture. Then just over a year ago, Brandi & Neil had twin daughters, Mia Faith & Ava Grace, shortly after Neil had became the lead pastor of his church in Naperville IL.
The girl of my dreams from the ’70s is still the girl of my dreams and even more beautiful than she was then. With the exception of being alone with her, nothing is better than being with family.
As we see business after business fail, it is apparent that a lots of folks have been “asleep at the switch.” It is not just CEOs and other corporate executives but also boards of directors who have failed to rein-in wrong moves by CEOs.
I joined such a company some years ago after the long-term CEO had been dismissed and the outside board of directors had been thoroughly and repeatedly chastised by the state’s insurance commissioner. One would have thought that the board would have learned their lesson but a few years after I had departed, the insurer was once again “flown into the ground” while the board simply watched what was happening. There was no 3rd chance for this insurer; they were acquired by another insurer.
That rings a bell for me. I really get a great deal of satisfaction out of helping corporations profitably grow. Having sent a note, a while back, to a large bank’s chief marketing officer suggesting that I could help them make things happen (grow share), I received a call from one of his assistants saying “Nothing is happening here; the marketing V.P. has gone and the bank’s name has changed.” Clearly those in charge had been asleep at the switch and. sadly enough, this assistant had not yet grasped the reality of what had happened.
I have absolutely no desire to help corporations survive. My goal is to help businesses thrive by growing profitably. To do this, one must constantly keep abreast of what buyers and potential buyers need and want and provide it. Be apprehensive when corporate executives claim that they know exactly what buyers need–thus it is unnecessary to ask. From my experience, there is only want to know what buyers want; ask them!
In 1970, Philip Morris’ share of the domestic market was about 14%. Currently, it is around 50%. They did this by consistently having their share of voice greater than their share of market. Not just one year, but year after year. And this was when RJ Reynolds vowed not to be outspent.
But what does that have to do with “Marketing Research and Advertising When the Economy Goes South?” Everything. The sad reality is that many otherwise “bright” folks are prone to cut their advertising (and marketing research) expenses when the economy is soft. The fact of the matter is that a soft market is exactly when advertising (and marketing research) investments should be increased, not reduced.
When Philip Morris set out to outpace their competitors, they viewed increased spending in advertising and marketing research as an investment, not as an expense. And their investment probably had a greater return than even they had expected.
In this challenging economy we find ourselves in as we enter 2009, I’d recommend that well thought-out advertising and marketing research investments be increased, not decreased. Of course, if you don’t mind giving up share to competitors, let them outspend you as did RJ Reynolds (and other tobacco companies) when Philip Morris starting outspending the competition. When they started their heavy spending, share wise they were (as I recall) a distant 4th to the category leader, RJ Reynolds, who had long held more than 30 share points-now far behind the leader, Philip Morris.
As my wife and I were driving to her office after church this monring, she was deep in thought about all that she needs to do for her business today. So as she drove along in deep concentration, I contemplated about that which I most like about my marketing research business. Helping businesses grow share!
Everything that I do is directed at helping businesses make better decisions. And I cherish the opportunities that the good Lord gives me to help businesses become more effective. Much of what I do could undoubtedly be done just as well by other marketing research providers. But there is one area in which I have no peer!
I developed a brand choice model (a mathematical model) that actually does what a brand choice model is supposed to do. I call it the Optimal Brand Choice Model since it identifies the brand positioning that optimizes a brand’s share. Several years ago, I fully described this model in the scientific literature. But I will chat more about that later.
Sorry folks–it won’t just be the “fat cats” who will get their taxes increased. Every one who pays income tax now will get their tax increased. But how could that be? One candidate and all of his surrogates keep telling that 95% of the people will get a tax decrease.How could those people get their taxes increased–or at least those people who now actually pay some income tax?
The explanation is quite simple. It’s much the same as Clinton’s “It depends upon what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.” In this case, it means that rescinding Bush’s tax cuts (or letting them expire) doesn’t count as a tax increase even though every single person that pay taxes will end up paying more taxes.But the net result is that everyone will get an increase in their income taxes, not just the ‘fat cat’ who, incidentally, are the very ones who create jobs. Sadly, this will result in fewer jobs available and less jobs created.When you vote on November 4th for the next President of the United States (POTUS), think about whether the so-called “tax decrease for 95% of the people” will result in more jobs for the 95% or fewer jobs.
It’s sad! Political pollsters are giving marketing researchers a bad name. Umpteen pollsters are asking potential voters the same question but getting very different results. Who is right and who is wrong?
If these folks are so good at doing what they do, why is it that the results are so inconsistent. Were 4 different marketing research companies hired by General Motors to ask consumers the same questions but get very different results, General Motors would fire them all and hire a competent researcher and conduct their own surveys.
Getting consist results is not difficult. One only needs to select a sample of consumers or potential voters that constitutes a representative sample of the population of interest (whether it be likely automobile buyers or likely voters) and then to simply ask them unbiased questions.
In the humble opinion of this marketing researcher, it is appalling that we’re witnessing such diverse results–a diversity that is due largely to incompetence, greed, or political bias. It does not have to be that way.
As we are getting so close to the presidential election, it is time to mention margin-of-error once again. Just yesterday, I heard one of the radio personalities on
Chicago 890 AM—WLS comment that many people didn’t understand the concept of margin-of-error. And that’s true. Then he proceeded to explain what it meant. In doing so, though, he got it just half right. The radio personality gave a hypothetical example that 50% of voters were likely to vote for one of the candidates–with a margin-or-error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. He described that his statement meant that the “real percentage” was in the range of 45-55%–which is correct. But he failed to indicate how likely it was that is the “true score” fell in the 45% to 55% range. If nothing else was stated, the confidence limit (the degree of certainty the “true value” was in the range was 95 %.). Furthermore, because of the size of the range + or - 5%, it tells us that the sample size was considerably less than 1100. It is much more frequent that we see margins-of-error of + or - 3%, as the radio personality’s colleague had indicated. When the statement is made that 50% preferred one candidate–with a margin or error of 3% (+ or - ) 3%, this will always mean that one can be confident that 95% of the time when such a survey is undertaken the actual score will be within + or - 3% of the observed score (which in this case would have been 50%). This would also imply that the research had used a sample of approximately 1100 individuals–hopefully individual that were representative of the population under study–such as “likely voters.”
There is no denying the fact that I like to work. But absolutely nothing (with one exception) is more fun than spending time with family. That’s Ginni, Hannah, and me just hanging out at the home of our son, Neil, and daughter-in-law, Brandi.
